From The Shadow...Oscar Predictions...Who will win..Should Win...And Snubs

Well two years ago I got every pick right..last year..not so much. Out of 8 I got 6 right. Well let's call it a comeback.

This year will be real tough, there is not one clear front runner (Well maybe supporting male), picks will be tough.

To make things different this year, I usually save the best picture for last, this year I will start with the best picture. Why? It is because I feel this is the worst list of Oscar Nominated films in decades. I want to give reasons here why I feel that way.

BEST PICTURE

One of the problems with voters....They vote with the idea, "I want to vote for a movie that has meaning and shows a struggle to rise". Which is fine, however, You can have a movie about change and rising, but it cannot just be about that. There has to be a good script, good editing, and how about an ending that makes the viewer feel good sometimes.

The Brutalist....Can I get an editor. Well acted but, also kinda unbelievable of a script. Plus the dubbing controversy does not help.

A Complete Unknown...There was a film years back about Neil Armstrong called First Man. He was so brave, yet, the film was slow and boring mainly because Neil really did not have much of a personality and it was not, film worthy, other than the moon, just a regular guy, going to work. Same with Bob Dylan. Brilliant man, yet, he is a dud. Well acted film, but, no background on his song lyrics, nothing. He sings, he stares, he fights and is a bit of an asshole.

Conclave...terrible script with a cool idea. Half way through I stopped caring and with a shocking ending that was not believable at all.

Dune Pt 2...If Dune fanatics did not like the changes from the book, and me, as a non-Dune fanatic thought the back half of the film sucked. How did this get nominated?

Emilia Perez...This was a look at me I support trans votes. This film has no tone. The singing I thought was a joke. The storyline was just OK. Then controversy from Karla Sofia Gascon and her mouth. The only reason this did not make my worst list is the wonderful Zoe Saldana.

I'm Still Here...A very good story. Needs editing realllly baaaad. Even with its length, the ending felt rushed. I mean one character shows up handicapped near the end.Why? What happened? Shorten that front end , give us more of the family's life afterwards in the back end.

Nickleboys....Another if I vote this way I am fighting for a cause. I mean this reminded me of one of those old TV movies. With a poor script, not the story but the dialogue.

The Substance...If you read the Shadow Awards...which you should...you will see my problems with this film

Wicked...The special effects are just okay. The back half of this film is sloppy as all get out. Plus voters are waiting for Wicked For Good.

Will and Should Win the Best Picture

Anora

All award season The Brutalist has been the front runner. However in the last month..Anora is creeping to the front. So I think Anora will pull the upset. The other movie sitting in the shadows (no pun intended) is A Complete Unknown. 

Snub

DADDIO

Well you know my thoughts on this film. See my number 1 film of the year. It's different, a great script perfectly acted...you can replace any of the films except Anora with Daddio. 

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Will Win

Jacques Audiard for The Substance

Again it is wide open and this film seems to really come across as different. So I will go there lol

Should Win

Sean Baker for Anora.

Snubbed

Jon Chu for Wicked

Yes there were a lot of problems, but he raised his hand to tackle a biiiig project here. Knowing the fanatics will be coming after him. He added some good things to the original.

BEST SCORE

The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)
Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)
Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol and Camille)
Wicked (John Powell and Stephen Schwartz)
The Wild Robot (Kris Bowers)

Will Win And Should Win

Daniel Blumberg The Brutalist

This is the one I think the Brutalist will Win. The score in this film is wonderful. It sets the atmosphere of time beautifully.

Snubbed

Amelia Warner For The Woman And The Sea

Like Blumberg, her score sets up the atmosphere of the time, and the score adds to the excitement of the finish

I would replace Ducol and Camille from Emilia Perez for sure,

BEST ANIMATED MOVIE

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir Of A Snail

Wallace And Gromit Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot

Will Win

Wild Robot

This is a three way battle between Robot; Inside Out 2; and Flow

I have to give Robot the slight edge over Flow

Should Win

Inside Out 2

I prefer Inside Out 2 over Wild Robot. I just think the script for Inside 2 is more layered.

I see no snubs for this award

BEST ACTOR

Adrian Brody The Britalist

Timothee Chalamet A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes Conclave

Sebastian Stan The Apprentice

Will Win And Should Win

Timothee Chalamet

I mean he had a great year. He did his own singing in A Complete Unknown. I was not a fan of the film however He was great., and believable as Bob Dylan. It is between him and Brody and I am giving him the edge. He is lucky votes were in before his SAG speech lol.

Snubbed

Sean Penn In Daddio

I would definitely replace Sebastian Stan with this fantastic performance

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Yora Borisov for Anora

Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain

Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce in The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice

Will Win and Should Win

Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. 

This is close to a lock. He is so good in this film, you actually worry about him, and cant stop thinking about him even after the film is over. The amazing thing is, he took the job last minute. He was not feeling it, lol. However I think it is a false nomination because he was clearly the lead in this film. Still, the only competition he has here is Norton just because he never won, and that is a loooongshot.

 

I have no snubs here ...it is just a weak category. 

BEST ACTRESS

Cynthia Erivo for Wicked Pt 1

Karla Sofia Gascon for Emilia Perez

Mickey Madison for Anora

Demi Moore for The Substance

Fernanda Torres for I'm Still Here

Will Win

Demi Moore

What was once a runaway, is now much closer to a three way race. Madison is coming on strong after the SAG awards: Torres is gaining steam also. Erivo probably is strong but voters are waiting for Wicked For Good. Still I think Demi just barely wins here with the comeback story vote. Barely.

Should Win

Mickey Madison

She is a find! Plus Demi Moore was really in half the film. Madison was in every scene. 

Snubbed

Dakota Johnson

DADDIO was an acting clinic and it is a shame that this film and these performances were ignored. I would replace Gascon with Johnson for sure.

Finally

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Monica Barbaro for A Complete Unknown

Ariana Grande For Wicked Pt 1

Felicity Jones for The Brutalist

Isabella Rossellini for Conclave

Zoe Saldana for Emilia Perez

Will Win and Should Win

Zoe Saldana

She is the front runner. The shining star in  a bad film. The real competition comes from Monica Barbaro, and I will not be bothered if she pulls out the upset, and usually in either supporting category there is an upset. This could be it.

Snubbed

Elle Fanning

She was fantastic as Sylvie in A Complete Unknown. The other three performances Norton Chalamet and Barbaro kinda left her forgotten. She deserved a nomination also leaving Rossellini off the list.

Well these are my picks. Lets see how I do!!!

From the shadows as always thanks for your time.