OSCAR WEEKEND!!! Who Will Win! Who Should Win! Who Got Snubbed!

Last year I went 8 for 8!! Bragging..I know. However, that will not happen this year, it is just too wide open in many categories. So lets get started with who will...who should...and snubbed

BEST ACTOR

Austin Butler in Elvis
Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser in The Whale
Paul Mescal in Aftersun
Bill Nighy in Living

Who Will Win And Should Win

Brendan Fraser

Now I did not like the film as much as others. I felt it was over long , and just depressing, and one note. However Fraser was very good. The only one here who can pull off the upset is Austin Butler I think. However I don't see that happening

Snubbed

Felix Kammerer In All Quiet On The Western Front

It's embarrassing that he did not get a nomination for this stunning performance...in fact he should be the winner. I would replace Mescall.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway
Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win And Should Win

Ke Huy Quan

Oscar voters love a comeback story and this sure is one. The only threat is Brendan Gleeson and that will not happen.

Snubbed

Paul Dano

 As Burt Fabelman was sooo terrific, and heartbreaking. I would replace Hirsch with him. Hirsch was in that film for 5 minutes, that's wrong to get a nomination for that.

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett in Tár
Ana de Armas in Blonde
Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie
Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win

Michelle Yeoh

It was all Cate Blanchett for Tarr up until a month ago, then momentum of Everything Everywhere steamrolled her, I see Yeoh winning a close one.

Should Win

Ana De Amaras in Blonde

I just think she does not get enough credit turning her self into Marilyn. The walk, the look, the speech; the mannerisms. I think she was great in a just better than okay film. 

Snubbed

Yes I have two

Daisy Edgar-Jones 

In Where The Crawdads Sing, she took on a role from a popular book knowing the pressure and expectations to be Kya from the book, and she pulled it off. Remember she is from London,and still convinced us she is living in the Carolinas.

Aubrey Plaza

In Emily The Criminal she is in every scene...That job interview scene should win her the Oscar. Of all the snubs this may be the biggest.

 I would replace Riseborough and William with these two.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau in The Whale
Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Will Win/Should Win

Angela Bassett was bad ass wonderful in Wakanda Forever. This is the closest race. It is between Bassett and Curtis. I give Bassett the edge because I think Hsu and Curtis will cancel themselves out.

Snubbed

Yes I have two snubs!!

Janelle Monae in Glass Onion strolled in and stole the movie from under many of the stars in that cast.

Mariana Trevino as Marisol in Otto held her own and then some with Tom Hanks.

I would replace Hsu and Condon with these two.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio — Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On — Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish — Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
The Sea Beast — Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
Turning Red — Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins

Will Win

Pinocchio

It is between Pinocchio and Marcel. The voters love Del Toro.

Should Win

Marcel The Shell With Shoes On

Well you know what I thought of this film, if you read my top ten of the year..and you really should.

No snubs for this category.

All I can say is..what happened to PIXAR and Disney?

BEST DIRECTOR

The Banshees of Inisherin — Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans — Steven Spielberg
Tár — Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness — Ruben Östlund

Will Win And Should Win

Kwan and Scheinert For Everything Everywhere All At Once

I was not a big fan of this film but I can appreciate the job they did keeping track of time jumps and the different time jumps to direct the cast.

Snubbed

Joseph Kosinski

To direct Maverick is a huge challenge. Real sets. Real flying planes. It is crazy he is constantly ignored during award season. I would replace Ostlund for Kosinski

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick; Music and Lyric by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR; Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once; Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne

Will Win

Lift Me Up 

Lift Me Up will edge out Hold my Hand. Lady Gaga had her moment and voters will then go toward Rihanna

Should Win

Hold My Hand

Lady Gaga wrote this song..and the lyrics fit perfectly with the storyline of the film. A perfect song to end Maverick. Gaga knows she will lose..she is not flying in for the show lol.

Snubbed 

Carolina

Where The Crawdads Sing

How can voters ignore this song. It was perfect for this film. Taylor Swift knew the book and wrote this for the movie. Replace Naatu Naatu with this.

NOW.... BEST PICTURE

All Quiet on the Western Front — Malte Grunert, Producer
Avatar: The Way of Water — James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
The Banshees of Inisherin — Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh, Producers
Elvis — Baz Luhrmann, Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss, Producers
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert and Jonathan Wang, Producers
The Fabelmans — Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, Producers
Tár — Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert, Producers
Top Gun: Maverick — Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer, Producers
Triangle of Sadness — Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober, Producers
Women Talking — Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand, Producers

Will Win

Everything Everywhere All At Once

This is becoming close to a lock after what we already have seen during award season. The outside chances are The Fablemans and Tar, but, they have no chance at this point.

Should Win

Top gun Maverick

Not only for the fun; exciting; and emotional film it was, but for bringing people back to the theaters.

Snubbed 

Crawdads and Otto should have been nominated. Both, near perfect movies but snobby critics roll their eyes at these films..I would replace the awful Triangle Of Sadness and the long messy Avatar Way Of The Water.

Well There are my Oscar picks, May the odds always be in my favor.

From the shadows as always thanks for your time.